Breeders Racing Conditions: Probably Off, Soft

One thing is certain Saturday at Monmouth Park, the racing conditions will be off and soft for the remaining eight Breeders'Cup races.

The main track is sealed and depending on the amount of rain, the surface will be either muddy or sloppy. The turf course will be yielding.

On Thursday, the first two contests were on a muddy main track. Surprisingly, winner of the first race, with a claiming purse of $32,000, covered the six furlongs in 1:08 4/5.

"Idiot Proof who is in the BC Sprint is the record holder her and set it this summer- 1:07 2/5,"said Paul Grimm, editor of the Oceanport Racing Report. "If we see this same muddy condition on Saturday we could see another track record at this distance."

While Thursday’s remaining races were run on a sealed sloppy surface, "speed on the loose was dangerous,"Grimm observed. "However, speed duels gave horses from just off the pace to mid-pack a chance.”

There were three wire-to-wire winners while four others that triumphed were within two lengths of the leader after a half-mile. Three rallied off the pace to win.

Showers moved out for the final three races, but there’s no doubt the track took a beating. In the 10th race, with an allowance purse of $60,000, the winner ran the six furlongs in 1:11 1/5.

Some horses will benefit from the soggy conditions. Those with an advantage on an off main track are War Pass in the Juvenile, Commentator in the Sprint and Lawyer Ron in the Classic. Only twice in 23 years were host tracks listed less than good: Churchill Downs in 1988, sloppy, and Belmont in ’95, muddy.

Fifteen of the past 17 that captured the Juvenile won at least one of two previous starts. Eleven of the last dozen Sprint winners scored in one of their final two preps while only four led from the start. Nine of the past 12 Classic champs finished first in one of their final two preps.

Soft or yielding turf will benefit horses from Europe like Excellent Art in the Mile and Dylan Thomas in the Turf. Fifteen of the last Mile winners ran first or second in their final prep while American-based horses captured nine of the last 12 races. European shippers won or dead-heated for victory in eight of the past 10 years.

Three different grass courses were listed as less than good: ’95, Belmont, soft; ’02, Arlington, yielding; and Lone Star Park, ’04, yielding. Two more horses have been scratched, including Dixie Chatter, considered a contended in BC Juvenile.

The colt was withdrawn Thursday after developing a fever shortly after arriving from California this week.

The colt was aboard the same flight as Cry and Catch Me, a leading contender in the Juvenile Fillies, who was withdrawn Wednesday after coming down with a fever.

"She got sick and when the temperature hit 102, I pulled the plug,"said trainer Bob Baffert.

Dixie Chatter "had a little fever last night (Wednesday) and still this morning (Thursday),"conditioner Richard Mandella said. "It ain’t what we came here for, but we’ve seen this movie before. We’ve got to err on the side of caution.”

Attila’s Storm was scratched from the Sprint, according to trainer Richard Schosberg, because he had some filling in his left front ankle and "was a little sore this morning (Thursday). It’s nothing major, but he’s not 100 percent.”