The New England Patriots come to the Lone Star State for a showdown with the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football in Week 13 of the NFL season.
Sports betting articles have the Texans as 3-point favorites after opening at +3.5 for this key AFC primetime matchup. If you’re betting on the NFL odds for New England at Houston Sunday night, here are some important angles and edges to work into your wagers.
When you think of the Patriots, you instantly think of Tom Brady shredding opposing secondaries and marching the offense all the way to the end zone. However, 2019 hasn’t gone according to plan for New England and their veteran quarterback.
Brady and the offense have been mediocre after a noticeable turnover in receiving talent this offseason, namely the retirement of tight end Rob Gronkowski. On the season, New England has just 15 passing touchdowns and is picking up just 6.4 yards per pass attempt. On top of that, those offensive numbers are a touch inflated due to the weakest schedule in the NFL and a defense giving Brady extra snaps thanks to an NFL-best 29 takeaways.
While New England struggled with the November weather in Foxborough this past Sunday’s win over Dallas, managing only 13 points in the wind and rain, the scoring attack has posted point totals of 20, 17, and 13 the last three games.
With a stop unit allowing only 10.6 points per game on the season – lowest in the NFL – the Patriots are beginning to look like a Under bettors’ dream, playing below the total in four of their last five contests.
Get the horns
The Texans have also watched the Under winners roll in in recent weeks, staying below the total in four straight games heading into Sunday night. However, there’s no denying the amount of offensive firepower on this roster, namely in the passing game.
Quarterback Deshaun Watson overcame two rough road outings to toss for nearly 300 yards in last Thursday’s win over Indianapolis. Watson’s home-and-away splits aren’t that different, but he has had extra time to prep for this massive game and will be playing on the fast turf inside NRG Stadium.
Leading receiver DeAndre Hopkins is coming off a two-touchdown day versus the Colts and fellow WR Wil Fuller returned with a bang in Week 12, catching seven balls for 140 yards through the air. That group takes on the most talented secondary in the NFL, which allows opposing quarterbacks to complete just 54% of their passes and gives up only 8.7 yards per rare completion.
As mentioned, both teams have shown a tendency to the Under this past month. The total for Sunday Night Football opened at 44.5 and is up to 45 points.
New England enters with a 3-8 Over/Under record on the season, including a 1-5 O/U mark on the road. Houston is 4-7 O/U heading into Week 13, with a 1-4 O/U record as a host. That said, these teams have played to the Over in eight of their last 11 meetings overall.