Baseball betting is always a bit misleading. The teams at the top of the standings are rarely the most profitable bets simply because their moneyline odds are so pricey. Yeah, they may win two of three games every series, but that one loss pretty much wipes out profits earned on the two victories.
The trick in baseball betting is to spot value with undervalued teams and there’s no shortage of those to start the 2017 MLB schedule. Here are four free sports betting picks and why they’ve been diamonds in the rough… on the diamond:
Colorado Rockies (25-15, 12.83 units won)
No one saw the Rockies coming, and that’s helped Colorado backers stack mile-high profits in the first two months of the season. The Rockies currently lead the National League West and have earned nearly 13 units for bettors along the way.
Colorado has always been a live team at home, thanks to the homer-friendly thin air at Coors Field, but this year they’re getting it done on the road. The Rockies are 12-5 as visitors, and it hasn’t been the bats making the difference. The pitching staff has excelled, with a 3.21 ERA on the road, including a bullpen that leads the majors in saves with 19.
Minnesota Twins (19-16, 3.9 units)
For the season, the Twins’ earnings aren’t that impressive. However, Minnesota is 11-6 since late April and has been a boon for underdog bettors, piling up the cash as plus-money pups most nights. The Twins, much like the Rockies, surprisingly lead their division, recently taking two of three meetings with the rival Indians, who were supposed to run away with the American League Central.
The Twins have made the majority of their winnings on the road, which can add up quickly thanks to sizable moneyline odds. Minnesota is just 8-11 at Target Field but 11-5 away from home, for 7.89 units alone. Righty Ervin Santana has been lights-out through eight starts, with a 6-1 record and slim 1.50 ERA. He’s currently the 10th best money pitcher in baseball.
Milwaukee Brewers (22-18, 8.16 units)
As you can see by their record, the Brew Crew aren’t anything to write home about. Well, unless you’re writing home about all the money you’ve been making betting on baseball. Milwaukee has turned some heads by keeping pace in the National League Central, which is mainly due to the Cubs’ poor play. But, we can’t take away from what the Brewers are doing.
Milwaukee is crushing the ball at a crazy pace, leading the big leagues in home runs with 65 and ranking third overall in runs scored at 5.35 per game. That also helped total bettors cash in on Milwaukee, which boasts a 26-13-1 Over/Under mark heading into Wednesday. The pitching has been inconsistent but has posted a 3.88 ERA in May – a big improvement over their 4.43 ERA in April.
Houston Astros (29-12, 13.32 units)
Some would argue that Houston isn’t much of a surprise to top the American League West. To that we say, look at 2016 when Houston finished 84-78 and down almost -10 units. The Astros followed a promising 2015 with a stinker of a season but seem to have found their form this spring. Heading into Thursday, the Astros were riding a 9-1 streak which has helped make them the best bet in baseball.
How is Houston doing it? Pitching has been the biggest factor, with the team allowing three or fewer runs in eight of those last 10 games. On the season, the Astros boast a 3.41 ERA – second best in the majors – and have a solid bullpen closing out the final innings. Things are made a little easier on the pitching staff due to an offense knocking in 5.15 runs per game – fourth in baseball.