By Dave Zamzack, Inspin.com Collaborator, November 23rd, 2011

After a consistent 44-17 victory over Mississippi State last weekend, No. 3 Arkansas is getting ready to face No. 1 LSU on Friday in the most intriguing NCAA Football game of the week. 

For Arkansas (10-1, 6-1 SEC), the game represents a huge opportunity to fight for a spot in the national championship. But first, Arkansas will have to find the way to break the No.1 team in the nation.

While the Tigers are expressing confidence in their ability to handle the Razorbacks in the same way they've dealt with every other team this season, some betting experts are still cautious predicting the outcome.

Despite the swollen ponitspread favoring LSU (-12) and the fact that LSU has been the most consistent team in the country, a number of factors, statistics and specific situations also point to a possible victory for the Razorbacks.

Let’s start with this: Inspin's Game Simulator gives Arkansas 82.14% chances to win the game.  The Razorbacks (10-1, 6-1), which in recent weeks climbed to No. 3 in the national rankings, have won 10 games in back-to-back seasons for the first time since 1988-89. The team also recovered from its sole defeat this season to the Alabama Crimson Tide by winning seven straight games.

Arkansas has won three of the last four against LSU, including a famous overtime victory in 2007.  In addition, Arkansas offensive had no problems breaking its opponents’ defense. As an example, over the last three games, the Razorbacks defeated South Carolina, Tennessee and Mississippi State with a combined score of 137-52. This combined score marks a considerable difference when compared to LSU’s performance.  In two comparisons games (Tennessee and Mississippi State), LSU won the games by a combined score of 57-13. Arkansas outscored the same teams 92-24.

Arkansas also has the motivation and the talent to win this game. The sudden death of freshman Garrett Uekman the morning after defeating Mississippi State might prove to be positive and motivational on the team's mind game.

Arkansas QB, Tyler Wilson is better than any quarterback LSU has faced this season. Wilson is currently ranked No. 11 in the nation with 292.3 passing yards per game. So far this season, Wilson has thrown for 3,215 yards and 21 touchdowns with only five interceptions. Additionally, Arkansas is averaging 30.7 points in its previous three games against the Tigers.

But even if LSU wins the game, the real question is: Will they be able to cover the spread?  I personally think LSU will come short this time.

Click here to check the latest NCAAF Odds.

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