| By Inspin.com on Jan 09, 2012 |
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The Southeastern Conference (SEC) will claim its sixth consecutive NCAA national title when No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama clash for the second time this season in an epic BCS National Championship Game scheduled to take place this Monday, January 9th at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans, Louisiana.
The showdown for the Bowl Championship Series will bring an intense SEC re-match featuring the best two teams in the league. The teams already met last November 5th in Tuscaloosa, Alabama in a match dubbed by betting experts and college football fans as the “Game of the Century”. Both teams entered the field holding an undefeated record, however, LSU ended up winning a game decided by field goals, claiming a 9-6 overtime victory and taking the top spot in the College Football rankings.
But while most fans and bettors expect more action and a higher score for this rematch, not much has changed since their last game; in fact, the majority of players that started for Alabama against LSU will return to the field for the biggest game of the season. The only significant change in the player’s lineup is LSU’s QB Jarrett Lee, who started against Alabama, but was quickly replaced by current starter Jordan Jefferson.
The Tigers have played the toughest schedule in the nation. LSU (13-0) has victories over two other major bowl champions, Rose Bowl winner Oregon and Orange Bowl champ West Virginia, and has knocked off eight teams ranked in the Associated Press Top 25, with only three of those games being held in Baton Rouge.
Alabama is No. 1 in total defense; LSU is No. 2. So a shootout is unlikely. Neither offense amassed 300 yards or reached the end zone in the first meeting. The Special teams can mark the difference in this game, and that’s where LSU has an advantage. The Crimson Tide missed three field goals in the first game.
About The Crimson Tide (11-1, 7-1 SEC): Alabama’s RB Trent Richardson led the Tide in rushing and receiving against LSU. He’ll need some help from quarterback A.J. McCarron and a receiving corps that lacks a go-to guy for the Tide offense to have a better showing this time. In his first year starting, McCarron has been solid, but unspectacular, completing 66.7 percent of his pass attempts with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He hit 16 of 28 passes against LSU with an interception.
Even if Alabama’s offense finds problems carrying the ball, the team’s defense is capable of keeping the Tide in the game. As many as five starters are projected to be early NFL draft picks, led by like strong safety Mark Barron and star linebackers Dont’a Hightower and Courtney Upshaw. Kicker Jeremy Shelley has made 16 of 20 field goals with a long of 37. He has missed both his attempts of 40 yards or longer.
About LSU (13-0, 8-0 SEC): LSU’s defense led by game-changers Morris Claiborne and Tyrann Mathieu is probably the most talented in the NCAA. Offensively, LSU’s QB Jordan Jefferson is a better runner than Jarrett Lee and should give the Tigers more versatility against Alabama's defense. The Tigers averaged 44 points with Jefferson starting their last four games.
LSU also has an advantage on special teams, which includes punter Brad Wingo. LSU is allowing .35 yards per punt return, thanks to Wingo’s outstanding hang-time. LSU’s Kicker Drew Alleman has made 16 of 18 field goals and is 3 of 3 from beyond 40 yards.
This is a historically close championship game with Las Vegas sportsbooks listing the pointspread at Pick ‘em in late December. No BCS National Championship Game or Super Bowl has ever had a closing line of Pick 'em. These are the current NCAA Football odds as provided by WagerWeb.com.
Alabama Crimson Tide: -2
Louisiana State Tigers: +2
Total: 40.5 -110
Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.100%
Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games. 100.00 %
Tigers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 bowl games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. 100%
Tigers are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.100%
Tigers are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. 100%
Tigers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.90%
Tigers are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. 88.89 %
Crimson Tide is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. 100%
Crimson Tide is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. 100%
Crimson Tide is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games. 100%
Crimson Tide is 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. 88.89%
Crimson Tide is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 83.33%
Crimson Tide is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0. 80.00 %
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| Crimson Tide | Tigers | |
| OFFENSE | ||
| 34.6 | Points per Game | 28.8 |
| 175.9 | Rushing Yards per Game | 180.0 |
| 260.3 | Passing Yards per Game | 155.4 |
| 4.0 | Touchdowns per Game |
2.9 |
| DEFENSE | ||
| 14.1 | Points Against per Game | 17.8 |
| 1.8 | Sacks per Game |
2.7 |
| 1.8 | Interceptions per Game |
1.3 |
| NCAAF | Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 269 | Alabama | -2 -110 | -135 | o41.5 -110 |
| 270 | Louisiana State | +2 -110 | +115 | u41.5 -110 |
| Away Team | W | L | PF | PA | HOME | AWAY | DIV |
| Crimson Tide | 11 | 1 | 432 | 106 | 6-1 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Home Team | W | L | PF | PA | HOME | AWAY | DIV |
| Tigers | 13 | 0 | 500 | 137 | 7-0 | 6-0 | 5-0 |
| Tigers are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record. |
| Tigers are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a S.U. win. |
| Crimson Tide are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. |
| Crimson Tide are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. |
| Under is 5-1 in Tigers last 6 games after accumulating less than 275 total yards in their previous game. |
| Under is 14-3 in Crimson Tide last 17 games on turf. |
| Crimson Tide | ||
| Player | Status/Updated | Notes |
| No injuries to report. |
| Tigers | ||
| Player | Status/Updated | Notes |
| No injuries to report. |