Florida State (8-4) vs. Notre Dame (8-4)

Florida State Seminoles and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will meet this Thursday afternoon in the Champs Sports Bowl at the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, Florida. For both teams, the game represents a vital chance to regain their status among college football’s elite.  Football fans and bettors can expect a hard-fought and intense game, as both of the teams will attempt to close their season with a victory after finishing the regular season with a positive 8-4 record.

While neither school has played in a national championship game since 1999; however, the two teams hold a respectable Bowl record.  FSU has won its past three bowl appearances, including last season’s Chick-Fil-A Bowl over South Carolina. Notre Dame also won its past two bowl games, including the Sun Bowl last season against Miami. Additionally, Florida State is 2-0 in its previous two Champs Sports Bowl appearances (1990 & 2008). This is Notre Dame's first trip to the Champs Sports Bowl.

The Seminoles will enter the game holding three loses against ranked opponents, including early season losses to Oklahoma and Clemson and a one-point loss to Virginia in November. The Irish won three of their final four games but were done in by back-to-back losses to South Florida and Michigan at the beginning of the season.

FSU has a 24-14-2 (.625) record in 40 bowl appearances, the sixth-best percentage record by a team with 15 or more bowl appearances.  Florida State also holds a 4-2 advantage over Notre Dame in the all-time series between the two teams, including a 37-0 victory in their last game back in 2003. The last time the teams met in a Bowl game was in the 1996 Orange Bowl when the Florida State beat the Irish 31-26.

These are the current betting odds for this game (Odds as of 9:00 am eastern 12/29/2011):  

Notre Dame Fighting Irish: +3.5, -115
Florida State Seminoles: -3.5,-105
Game Total: 46.5 -110

Inspin's College Football Simulator shows Notre Dame as the main favorite to win this game with 62.96% chances.

Find the above NCAA Football odds at Wagerweb.com, a leading offshore sportsbook and highly recommended sponsor at Inspin.com. Betting odds do change so please check their website for instant updates.

Odds Analysis:

We opened the odds on FSU at -3-110 on December 5th. Initially, the game dropped to -2.5-110 as a result of a little sharp money on the dog but went back to -3 by December 9th. The game remained -3-110 until December 19th when we went to -3.5-110. The current line is being bet at a pretty even ratio by the public. The 50%/50% action we are writing at -3.5-110 should keep the line stable up until kick-off.

The total on the game opened o/u48-110 and remained static up until yesterday. We dropped the total to o/u46-110 when sharp money played the UNDER. However, the betting public loves the over in this game and even more at the new adjusted line. The ratio of over/under money right now is 90%/10% which may drive the total back up to 48-110 or at least 47-110.

Winning Betting Trends:

Florida State Trends

Seminoles are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games.100.00 %
Seminoles are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 neutral site games as a favorite.100.00 %
Seminoles are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 bowl games as an underdog. 100.00 %
Seminoles are 6-0-1 ATS in their last 7 Bowl games.100.00 %
Seminoles are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games.90.00 %
Seminoles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. 83.33 %

Notre Dame Trends

Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss. 80.00%
Fighting Irish are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0. 80.00%
Fighting Irish are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as an underdog. 77.78%
Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. 75.00%
Fighting Irish are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game. 75.00%

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