Arizona State Sun Devils (6-6, 4-5 Pac-12) vs. Boise State Broncos (11-1, 6-1 MWC)

The Boise State Broncos were passed by the BCS once again to play in a big time bowl game, despite finishing seventh in the current standings and going 49-3 in the past four years.

After going 11-1 this season, they now face the Arizona State Sun Devil in the MAACO Las Vegas Bowl at Sam Boyd Stadium. 

It’s been a successful run for QB Kellen Moore, who plays his last college football game, and the Broncos. Moore has won more games than any other quarterback in NCAA history and thrown for 3,507 yards, 41 TD’s and only 7 interceptions. In the team’s three losses, they’ve only given up a combined 5 yards in a four year period.  

The Bronco’s offense is ranked ninth overall in the nation – and they’ve played exceptional defense ranking 21st against the rush and 25th against the pass for a combined rank of 16th overall.

The Arizona State Cardinals come in with a 6-6 record this year and have decided to fire veteran coach Dennis Erickson, this being his last game calling the shots. ASU has named Todd Graham as new head coach for next season; something which has risen more than its share of eyebrows, given that Graham has had stops at Rice, Tulsa and Pittsburgh over the last few years including a one season stint with the Panthers ending with a text message to his players about his leaving.

6 ft., 8 in Junior QB Brock Osweiler, has thrown for over 3,600 yards and 24 TDs, but gave up 12 interceptions as well. He’s connected with Senior WR Gerell Robinson as his most frequent target with 1, 156 yards and 6 TDs. The ground game has relied on RB Cameron Marshall who accounted for 1,038 yards rushing but was inconsistent throughout the season.

The Sun Devils rank 24 in total offense, also ranking 21st nationally in points per game at just over 34, racking up 450 yards as well.

The pass defense has struggled this season as the ASU secondary gave up 270.9 Yards Per Game finishing 10th in the conference and 107th in the country. Notables include Clint Floyd and Alden Darby who tied for a team high with three interceptions apiece and Colin Parker who forced four fumbles and placed second on the team with 67 total tackles.

Let’s take a look at the current betting odds:

Arizona State Sun Devils: +14 (-110)
Boise State Broncos: -14 (-110)
Over/under: 66.5 (-110)
(Odds as of 9:00 a.m. EST 12/21/2011)

Find the above College Football odds at Wagerweb.com, a leading offshore sportsbook and highly recommended sponsor at inspin.com. Betting odds do change so please check this website for instant updates.

Odds Analysis:

The betting odds opened on this game Boise State -11.5-110 on December 5th. It was immediately hit by the sharps at -11.5, -12, -12.5, -13 and -13.5. The line settled in at -14 on December 6th. However, a little dog money at +14 last week took it back to -13.5-110 for a short time before going back to -14 yesterday.

The betting public loves hammering away on Boise State and with good reason. The Broncos have covered the spread ATS in eight of their past ten bowl games. The current public consensus ratio is a strong 83% on the Broncos at -14. If that trend holds up or gets heavier, expect to see a -14.5 on this game before kick-off.

The total on this game was opened o/u 65-110. We expected to take some OVER money but not at such a high percentage. The betting public ratio on the over/under is a heavy 88%/12%. The excessive OVER money has driven the total up from the opening line of 65 to the current line of 66.5-110. If the consensus trend on the OVER continues I expect the market to adjust and the number to continue to rise.

Winning Betting Trends:
100% winner –Broncos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
100% winner –Under is 4-0-1 in Broncos last 5 games in December.