Western Michigan Broncos (7-5, 5-3 MAC) vs. Purdue Boilermakers (6-6, 4-4 Big Ten)

It’s the Boilermakers’ second appearance in the Little Ceasars Bowl, now playing against the Broncos in their first appearance in Detroit. Western Michigan (7-5) comes in winning three out of its last four games, including a 38 - 31 season win over Big East Conference Team UConn.  The Boilermakers (6-6) won two of its last three games that include an impressive win over the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Both teams have high points per game averages (Western Michigan +35; Purdue +26), which promises an exciting game full of explosive plays  and bone crunching college football action.

The Broncos are led by receiver Jordan White, who tops the FBS board in total receiving yards (1,646), receiving yards per game (137.17), total receptions (127) and receptions per game (10.58). QB Alex Carder has been on target as well, exceeding his last season’s yardage total to make it 3,434 and giving Western Michigan a powerful air attack.

Defensively, the team has is strengths in defensive tackle Drew Nowak, who was named the 2011 MAC Defensive Player of the Year, ranking fifth in the FBS in tackles per loss per game (1.67) and fourth in total TFLs (20.0). However, they give up a lion’s share of points with a rush defense that has allowed 216 rushing yards per game and 5.5 yards per carry this season.

Purdue is the nation’s best kickoff return team (27.5 yard average) and has one of the most high-powered freshmen in Raheem Mostert, who leads the Big Ten with a 31.0-yard average. QB Robert Marve has teamed up with Caleb TerBush and the dynamic duo has completed 60 percent of their passes for 2,361 yards and 15 touchdowns.  They also have kicker Carson Wiggs who ranks second in the Big Ten in field goals (16-21) and has made his last nine.

On the defensive line the Boilermaker count on tackle Kawann Short, Jr., who tied for third in Big Ten and 13th nationally in tackles for loss (17) and tied for fourth in the conference in sacks (6.5).

These are the current betting odds: 

Western Michigan: +3 -120
Purdue Boilermakers: -3+100
Over/under: 60.5-110
(odds as of 9:00 am eastern 12/27/2011)

Find the above NCAA Football odds at Wagerweb.com, a leading offshore sportsbook and highly recommended sponsor at Inspin.com. Betting odds do change so please check their website for instant updates.

Odds Analysis:

The betting odds on the Purdue Boilermakers opened at -2.5-110 on December 5th. The line dropped initially to -2 and as low as -1.5 on December 12th. This past week Purdue has started to get some more attention. The game rose to -2, -2.5 and has settled in at -3. AT the current time the betting public consensus is split right down the middle on this game with 50% of the action on both teams. The balanced percentage should keep the line stable at -3 until kick-off.

The over/under on the game opened 60-110 and has risen a half-point to o/u 60.5. The public is hammering away on the OVER at a 77% ratio which caused the small move towards the over.  If the consensus on the OVER continues at this rate expect the total to climb a little higher.

There are no real serious injuries to report which could affect the line at this time. The majority have been known for the last couple weeks including Broncos QB, Alex Carder, who is listed as ‘probable’ at the current time with a shoulder injury. However, the Boilermakers will be very short0handed as a result of legal and academic problems which will keep numerous players out including wide receievers Gravestande and Ross, as well as linebackers Beckford, Lucas and Gooden.

Winning Betting Trends:

Purdue Trends

Boilermakers are 8-1-2 ATS in their last 11 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. 88.89 %
Boilermakers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0. 80.00 %
Boilermakers are 6-13-2 ATS in their last 21 games as favorite of 3.5-10.0. 31.58 %
Boilermakers are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 games as a favorite. 30.77 %
Boilermakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game. 25.00 %
Boilermakers are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall. 25.00 %

Western Michigan Trends

Broncos are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. 100.00 %
Broncos are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win. 87.50 %
Broncos are 7-1-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. 87.50 %
Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite. 77.78 %
Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0. 77.78 %

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