Air Force Falcons (7-5, 3-4 Mountain West) vs. Toledo Rockets (8-4, 7-1 Mid-American)

The NCAAF Military Bowl this year, matches up for the first time ever the Air Force Falcons against the Toledo Rockets at RFK Stadium on December 28 in Washington, D.C.  The game will air live on ESPN at 4:30 p.m. EST.

It’s been a record setting 2011 season for the Falcons, finding themselves in their fifth straight bowl appearance for the first time in the school’s history. Air Force takes the field as the holders of the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy for a second consecutive season. 

The Falcons came back from being down two-touchdowns at halftime against Army on November 5, for a 24-14 win over the Black Knights. This clinched them the prized award presented each season to the winner of the three team series among schools representing U.S. military academies – Army, Navy and Air Force.

Quarterback Tim Jefferson leads an explosive Air Force offense that averages 34.4 points per game and are second in the nation in rushing with a 320.3 per-game average. Jefferson holds the school record for most wins by a quarterback with 28, but doesn’t throw much in the Falcons’ run-happy offense. He attempted only 161 passes this season, completing 60.9 percent of them with 12 touchdowns and six interceptions.  Air Force ranks second in the Mountain West Conference and are among the nation’s top teams in total offense at 458.8 yards per game, including 138.5 yards passing.

Linebackers Brady Amack and Alex Means, along with safety Jon Davis, lead a solid defense, ranking seventh nationally in pass defense, with an average of 162.7 yards per game.

It’s the Toledo Rockets second-straight postseason bowl appearance. Coach Tim Beckman, who was 21-16 in three seasons at Toledo, left Dec. 9 to take the same position at Illinois. Beckman turned around a program in disarray with three straight losing seasons into a team playing good football.

Toledo is on a roll, finishing the season 8-4 (7-1 in the MAC) and have won seven of their last eight games. The Rockets only conference defeat comes against Northern Illinois. Their non-conference schedule had them play against three teams from BCS conferences including a close win against college football powerhouse Ohio State in Columbus, Ohio on September 10 where they loss 27-22.

The Rockets also played Boise State – a 40-15 loss at home on Sept. 16. Terrance Owens took over at quarterback for Austin Dantin (out with a concussion) and threw nine touchdowns in the last three games. Toledo has averaged 42.2 points, eighth in the nation, and has had consecutive games with at least 60 points scoring at least 44 points in each of its last five games and amassed 49 or more points five times.

These are the current NCAA betting odds:  
Toledo Rockets: -3 -115
Air Force Falcons: +3 -105
Over/Under: 71 -110
(odds as of 9:00 am eastern 12/28/2011)

Find the above NCAA Football odds at Wagerweb.com, a leading offshore sportsbook and highly recommended sponsor at Inspin.com. Betting odds do change so please check their website for instant updates.

Odds Analysis:
Toledo opened as a -3-110 point favorite on December 5th and has seen some strong action over the last week. The game has moved a full-point up to -4 as a result of 65% public betting action on the favorite.

Toledo running back, Adonis Thomas, and quarterback, Austin Dantin, are both listed as 'probable' so the line could continue to rise if their status remains the same.

The total on the game opened a heavy o/u 71-110. Sharp money drove the game down to 70.5-110, where it has settled in over the past few weeks. The big number seems to be scaring away the betting public at the current time. The ratio of over/under money is currently at 50%, which will have little effect on the line and should keep it stable.

Winning Betting Trends:

Air Force Falcons Trends

80% WINNER - Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
71.43% WINNER - Falcons are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 3.5-10.0.
88.89% WINNER - Over is 8-1 in Falcons last 9 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.

Toledo Rockets Trends

100% WINNER - Over is 4-0 in Rockets last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
85.71% WINNER - Rockets are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
83.33% WINNER - Rockets are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

For exclusive betting trends make sure to sign up for your FREE Inspin insider account.

P.S. If you like this article, feel free to share it with your own list, post it on your site, on your blog, or add it to your autoresponder. Twitter it, Facebook it, translate it. As long as you leave it intact and do not alter it in anyway. All links must remain in the article. No textual amendments permitted. Only exception is Twitter.

Any links to your own products or services, need to be done separate from the article itself, so that your audience can clearly tell it's your own link.