Oregon Ducks (11-2, 8-1 Pac-12) vs. Wisconsin Badgers (11-2, 6-2 Big Ten)

The NCAAF No. 5 Oregon Ducks will take on the No. 10 Wisconsin Badgers on Monday in 98th Rose Bowl game. Both teams finished the regular season with an 11-2 record winning the Pac 12 and Big Ten titles respectively.

It was the Oregon Ducks’ opportunity to jump into a second National Championship Game, but having lost their season-opener to LSU, their aspirations to get the No. 2 slot was squelched when they were knocked off by USC, 38-35, on Nov. 19.

Oregon bounced back however, winning the inaugural Pac-12 Championship Game, 49-31, over UCLA and totaling 98 points in its final two games to take its third consecutive Pac-10/12 championship.

The Ducks play at a breakneck speed, using a no-huddle as their base offense and relying on quickness at each of the skill positions.

Rating third in the country offensively, with 46 PPG and 515 YPG (296 via the rush and 219 passing), LaMichael James leads the offense with 1,646 yards and 17 touchdowns on 7.4 yards per attempt, while Kenjon Barner has 909 yards and 11 touchdowns on 6.3 yards per carry.

Oregon has its own former Heisman finalist in running back in LaMichael James, who is at 1,856 yards from scrimmage despite missing two games. James was recently announced as a finalist for the Paul Hornung Award, honoring the most versatile player in major college football.

Defensively, the Ducks rank 48th in the country in scoring defense (24 PPG), allowing 381 YPG with 43 sacks, 27 turnovers three of which were returned for scores.

The big difference between last year’s Badgers, which dropped the ball in a 21-19 loss to TCU in the Rose Bowl, and this year’s team is QB Russell Wilson. The graduate student quickly accustomed to his new teammates and was a Heisman Trophy candidate himself for much of the season.

Where the Badgers used to be a one-dimensional running team, Wilson has opened up the playbook by passing for 31 touchdowns and ranking second nationally in quarterback rating. Wisconsin has closed with five straight wins, during which Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns and no interceptions.

The Badger defense rates a sixth nationally in defense (17 ppg) only giving up 293 yards per game (155 passing, 138 via the rush) while recording 23 sacks and enticing 24 turnovers. Fresh off a win in the inaugural Big Ten Championship Game, they will test their scoring defense against Oregon’s third-ranked scoring offense.

 These two teams have very different styles, so this could turn out to be a very exciting game. It could certainly go either way, and could give insight into whether it’s better to work at a quick pace or a deliberate pace on offense.

These are the current betting odds: 

Wisconsin Badgers: +5.5
Oregon Ducks: -5.5
Over/under: 71.5 -110
(odds as of 9:00 am eastern 12/30/2011)

Find the above NCAA Football odds at Wagerweb.com, a leading offshore sportsbook and highly recommended sponsor at Inspin.com. Betting odds do change so please check their website for instant updates.

Odds Analysis:

The betting odds on this game opened Oregon -6-110 on December 5th. The line stayed relatively stable for the past few weeks. However, some sharp money yesterday drove the game down a 1/2 pt to -5.5-110. The betting public has shown no interest in either team more than the other. The ratio of Wisconsin/Oregon money is split right down the middle at 50%.

The total on the game opened a high o/u 71.5-110. The big number has not scared away the public in the least bit. At the current time we are writing OVER money at a ratio of 94% which is sure to drive this number up even higher.

There are no serious injuries on this game so expect the market to determine the direction of the number. Bettors interested in the OVER should play it early before the market adjusts.

Winning Betting Trends:

Oregon Ducks:

100% WINNER – Ducks are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
100% WINNER – Under is 5-0 in Ducks last 5 bowl games as a favorite.
80% WINNER – Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Winsonsin Badgers:

100% WINNER – Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
100% WINNER – Badgers are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
83.33% WINNER –Badgers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 bowl games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.