By Dave Johnson - Betting Expert and Professional Oddsmaker

Houston Texans (10-4, 5-2 away) vs. Indianapolis Colts (1-13, 1-6 home)

Head coach Gary Kubiak and the playoff-bound Houston Texans head to Lucas Oil Stadium to face the no-longer winless Indianapolis Colts on Thursday Night Football.

The Texans secured a playoff spot two weeks ago with a 20-19 victory over the Cincinnati Bengals. However, last week they suffered their biggest loss of the season losing to the Carolina Panthers 28-13. The loss dropped them to 10-4 and in a three-way tie in the AFC. They would love to secure a first-round bye, as well as home-field advantage in the playoffs so this match-up with the Colts is extremely important.

Houston Quarterback, T.J. Yates, had a rough afternoon vs. the Panthers last week. The rookie, forced to take over after season-ending injuries to Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart, was 19-30 for 212 yards with no touchdowns and 2 costly interceptions. However, he does have the opportunity to bounce back this week vs. a Colts passing defense ranked 24th in the NFL and allowing 246 yards/game.

Indianapolis finally broke through with a win last week vs. the Titans. At 13-0 they were on the verge of going down in history as the second non-expansion team to lose every game in a full season since World War II. The first team to accomplish the feat was the Detroit Lions in 2008 when they went 0-16 on the year.

The 27-13 home-win vs. Tennessee broke the streak and added some much-needed enthusiasm to the core of the team. Quarterback, Dan Orlovsky, was 11-17 for 82 yards and 1 touchdown for a 95.7 passer rating. However, the rushing attack was the real reason they secured the win.  Running back, Donald Brown, exploded for 161 yards and 1 touchdown on just 16 carries. The outburst was the largest rushing game of his three-year career and gives hope to a team in need of a strong rushing game as they play out their final games.

They feel they now have the opportunity to finish this disastrous season on a high-note. “It definitely gives you some confidence,” Orlovsky said. “But at the same time, I think all of us in this locker room know it’s literally a week-to-week thing in this league. It was nice for us, but we’ve moved on. We know the problems and challenges that Houston presents. It will be another good opportunity for us Thursday night.”

Let’s take a look at the current game odds:

Houston Texans: -6 (-110)
Indianapolis Colts: +6 (-110)
Over/under: 40 (-110)

The NFL odds above are at Wagerweb.com, a leading offshore sportsbook and highly recommended sponsor at inspin.com. The betting odds do change so please check their website here for instant updates.

Odds Analysis:

The betting odds on this game were opened earlier this week at Houston -6.5-110. Early sharp money on the underdog at +7-120 and +6.5-110 drove the game down as low as -5.5-110. The betting public consensus was hammering away on Houston at -5.5-110 at a ratio of 87%.

The strong consensus action forced it to go back up to -6-110 last Wednesday night.  The game has settled in at -6-110 and I don’t expect any more drastic line movement.  Wide receiver, Andre Johnson, has been listed as ‘expected to miss’ since the start of the week, so it’s doubtful his status will change or affect the pointspread.

The over/under on the game opened 40 and it’s stayed at that all week. The public consensus has the power to change the market on a total and televised games encourage a ton of OVER money. At the current time, the percentage is only 60% in favor of the over with 40% of the action on the UNDER. At this percentage, don’t expect much to happen with the posted total before kick-off.

Winning Betting Trends:

100% winner – Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in December.
100% winner – Under is 5-0 in Colts last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
100% winner – Under is 4-0 in Colts last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


Featured Player Tweets:


Houston Texans
Duane Brown (Houston Texans, Offensive Tackle)
Morning World! Headed to the airport for our business trip in Indy. Gotta get it! Hope u all enjoy ur day!

Brandon Harris (Houston Texans, Cornerback)
Made it safe to Indy hope to be saying that again in a little over a month

 




Indianapolis Colts
Patrick McAfee (Indianapolis Colts, Punter)
This weather's pretty poopy...but we won so I can't wait to get to work haha

Antoine Bethea (Indianapolis Colts, Safety)
Haven't had this feeling in a while!!

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