| By Inspin.com on Nov 18, 2011 |
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By Dan The Man, November 18th, 2011.
Week 10 in the NFL is in the record books and we are a few steps closer to the postseason. Here are a few of the highlights from last week:
Buffalo continued their second-half collapse with a 44-7 blowout to the Cowboys.
Will Week 11 be as action-packed and exciting? Absolutely. Let's get started:
> Pick #1> Carolina Panthers (2-7) vs. Detroit Lions (6-2) OVER
> Inspin's Game Simulator made the total on this game 50.5-110. There is value betting the OVER at 46.5 or better. This is listed on Inspin.com as a 2-Star FREE pick.
> The Panthers struggled last week losing 30-3 to the Titans. Perhaps, it had something to do with the bye week adjustment or just lack of preparation. Regardless, they will bounce back. They still have the 8th ranked offense in the NFL and average 400 yards per game and 21.1 pts. The Buccaneers strategy shut-down Newton and the loss will definitely be a motivator this week as the panthers head to Detroit.
> Here's a quote for the Charlotte Observer:
> "We just got outplayed today, simple and plain," Newton said. "This can't happen. This is embarrassing. Losing like this at home, no sir"
> Detroit experienced a similar defeat losing 37-13 to the Chicago Bears. The offense was non-existent and struggled to put points on the board. However, take a closer look and you may have noticed there were 30mph winds. Mother Nature is often the 12th man and dome-teams have been known to struggle in bad conditions.
> Wagerweb.com, a leading offshore sportsbook and sponsor at Inspin has the total on this game listed at 47.5. Open an account with them this week and they will honor your first bet OVER the 46.5 (that's a full free point on your first bet). Click here to check their odds listed on Inspin.
> Expect both offenses to explode this week in the comfy confines of Ford Field. Those players are itching to get back out there and find the elusive end zone they missed so much last week. It will be an old-fashioned shoot-out.
Pick #2
> Cincinnati Bengals (6-3) vs. Baltimore Ravens (6-3)> Inspin's Simulator made the point spread on this game Ravens -3-110. There is value betting the Bengals at +7.5-110 or better. This is listed on the Inspin.com website as a 3-Star Premium Pick.
> The Baltimore Ravens will be without inside linebacker, Ray Lewis. Don't underestimate the value of losing a player of this magnitude. Offensive players always get the attention but guys like Ray have a bigger impact on the outcome of the game. Lewis is ranked 25th in the NFL with 68 tackles on the season. More important than the stats is the fact he is leader of this defense. He is the guy that motivates and his absence will make a huge impact.
> Lewis hasn't missed a game since 2007. He missed the last two regular season games that season and it wasn't pretty for the Ravens. Let's take a look:
> Sunday, December 23rd 2007 27-6 LOSS to the Seattle Seahawks
> Sunday, December 30th 2007 27-21 WIN over the Pittsburgh Steelers
> Wait! How did they beat the Steelers without Ray Lewis?
> I'll tell you how. Pittsburgh had already wrapped up the AFC North and they sat both Roethlisberger and Ward for the entire game. The fact Baltimore only won that game by six points is scary.
> Wagerweb.com has the Ravens listed at -7-110. Open an account with them this week and they will honor your first bet +7.5-110 on the Bengals (that's a free key number half-point on your first bet). Click here to check their odds listed on Inspin.
> Expect the Bengals and their fourth-ranked defense to give the Ravens a solid fight. Without team leader and motivator, Ray Lewis, the Ravens will struggle to keep Bengals points off the board. The +7.5-110 is like stealing candy from a baby.
> Pick #3
> Jacksonville Jaguars (3-6) vs. Cleveland Browns (3-6)
> The Inspin Simulator made the total on this game 31-110. There is value betting the UNDER 34.5 or better. This is listed on the Inspin.com website as a 2-Star Free Pick.
> Weather conditions are one of the biggest moneymakers in college and pro football. When point spreads and totals are released by the bookmakers kick-off weather conditions are not always known. What does that mean for you as a bettor? It means there is value if you know how to find it. The Jaguars-Browns game is a perfect example on how to make money off weather conditions.
> Let's take a look at the current forecast:
> 53 degrees, 15 mph winds and a 35% chance of rain
> What does rain and wind do to a football game? It makes it UGLY.
> Quarterbacks can't grip a wet ball and receivers will have problems catching the ball in the wind. Passing routes will not be precise once that field gets messy. Cleveland Stadium is a grass surface which means it gets muddy and sloppy. Teams will be forced to change their game plan and focus more on the run. The more times a team runs the ball the more time drains from the clock. The more time that runs off the clock equals less time to score. The UNDER has value in this game.
> However, we don't just bet the UNDER on these conditions alone. Keep in mind these two offenses are a work in progress. Neither team has the ability to put up big offensive numbers. Here are some offensive stats to look at:
> Cleveland ranked 31st in the NFL @ 294.1 yards/game
> Jacksonville ranked 32nd in the NFL @ 243.6 yards/game
> Cleveland ranked 29th in NFL @ 14.6 pts/game
> Jacksonville ranked 31st in the NFL @ 12.8 pts/game
> It really doesn't get any better than that for an UNDER. These teams struggle to move the ball and the weather conditions will make it even more difficult.
> Here's a tasty betting trend from the Inspin.com database. Sign-up free for Insider and get all these betting trends each and every day:
> Under is 6-1 in Jaguars last 7 games on grass. (That's an 86% winner)
> Wagerweb.com has the total on this game listed at 34-110. Open an account with them this week and they will honor your first bet UNDER 34.5-110 (that's a free key number half-point on your first bet). Click here to check their odds listed on Inspin.
Expect an ugly, sloppy game this week. Both of these teams have Top 10 defenses in the NFL. Cleveland is ranked 5th and Jacksonville is ranked 2nd in yards/game allowed. Offense will be non-existent. Both teams will run the ball and both defenses keep points off the board. UNDER 34 ½…Bet it and bank it.
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