By, Mario Miller 

The week is almost over and I’m busy gathering insights for you on what the best bets are for upcoming games.

I have to admit that sometimes I get stumped, so this time I went to none other than Dan “The Man” Leach to pick his brain for insider information on the Saints vs. Lions on Monday Night Football. It wasn’t easy, Dan takes his job very seriously and his picks are solid gold.

This is what he said when I grilled him on the game:

What team do you think will win?

I think the New Orleans Saints will win, but I think the Lions will cover the +9-110.

What team has the “edge” on this game?

Detroit has the “edge” in the form of preparation. Game prep time is an undervalued statistic and often ignored by the betting public. Detroit has been idle since Thanksgiving and the Saints had to play Monday Night. That's a significant longer time to prepare for the Lions and gives them an “edge.”

Which is the stronger team?

Team strength is tough to decide. I tend to think strong teams are ones that are on the right path to the playoffs. With that in mind, I would have to lean towards the Saints. They have won three straight and scored an average of 34 points per game during the streak. The Lions have lost two of three and have scored an average of 21 points.

How do you think the teams match up (Offense, Defense)?

Statistically they match up well on both offense and defense. The Saints are ranked #1 in the NFL in overall offense averaging 449.6 yards per game and 32.9 points per game. The Lions are ranked 9th and average 376.7 yards/game and 28.7 pts/game. However, if you look a little closer you'll notice the difference in the rushing game. The Saints run the ball well and are ranked 8th in the league. Detroit is still without starting running back, Jahvid Best, and has struggled to move the ball on the ground and are now ranked 22nd overall.

On the other side of the ball, Detroit would seem to have the advantage. They are ranked 10th in the NFL holding opponents to 329.5 yards per game. The Saints are ranked 25th allowing 370.8 yards per game. However, the possible absence of Ndamukong Suh will have a huge impact. His absence in my mind gives the advantage on defense to the New Orleans Saints.

What are the determining factors for the game?

The biggest determining factors in this game in order of importance as a handicapper would be game preparation, home field advantage and injuries/suspensions. The Lions win for preparation but the Saints win both home field advantage and injuries/suspensions.

How do the quarterbacks match up?

Matt Stafford is a good quarterback but Drew Brees wins easy as far as overall statistics. Stafford has thrown for an average of 269.5 yards/game with 26 td's and 13 int's for an overall QB rating of 90.7. Brees averages 323.4 with 27 td's and 11 int's for a rating of 103.6. Both QB's play well in domes, but Stafford will have some problems handling the crowd in the Superdome.

What is the insider line to bet?

The Saints would seem to own every advantage in this game except for game preparation. In my opinion this factor alone is strong enough to justify a good bet on the underdog. Personally, I would let the betting public drive this game up to -9.5 or even -10. If the number doesn't get there I would bet the Lions +10-130 for a small play.

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