ed welch
Spotting value early into the college football season can be very profitable, especially with programs kicking off conference play as we roll into Week 4. These under-the-radar teams live odds comparison that could help you clean up at the sportsbook in Week 5 and beyond.
Memphis Tigers 2-0, 1-1 ATS
The Tigers caught the attention of the nation by knocking off UCLA last week, with their balanced offensive attack giving the Bruins fits. Memphis is rumbling for 240.5 yards on the ground and airing it out for 247.5 passing yards through two games, backed behind a roster of transfers and college castoffs playing with a chip on their shoulder pads.
The Tigers do run the risk of a massive letdown spot in Week 4, facing FCS Southern Illinois. But Memphis should be able to outclass their sub-division opponents on talent alone, giving them a buffer before playing back-to-back road games at Georgia State in Week 5 and at UConn in Week 6. The biggest speed bumps for the Tigers are Navy and Houston, who don’t show up until mid-October.
Purdue Boilermakers 2-1, 3-0 ATS
Purdue hasn’t eased into the 2017 season like some of its fellow Big Ten members. The Boilermakers jumped right into the fire, with an opener against reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and Louisville in Week 1, putting a good scare into the Cardinals. They took care of Ohio with ease the following week and blasted Missouri 35-3 as 6-point road dogs last Saturday.
Purdue is getting great play from quarterback David Blough, who has six touchdowns to two interceptions while connecting on more than 76 percent of his throws. He hit 12 different receivers in the win over Mizzou, and the Boilermakers also had nine different ball carriers on the ground. That makes Purdue very difficult to game plan for, and gives it value as a 10-point home underdog against visiting Michigan in Week 4.
Toledo Rockets 3-0, 1-2 ATS
The Rockets are appropriately nicknamed after ranking 11th in offense through the first three games, hanging 552.7 yards per in the boxscore. Toledo has an off-the-radar Heisman contender in quarterback Logan Woodside, who’s passed for more than 1,000 yards, eight touchdowns, and only one interception in those three victories.
The Rockets are coming off a shootout win against Tulsa, and rolls in Miami to face the Hurricanes in Week 4. The line opened Toledo +14 and sharp money immediately pushed the spread down off the key number to +13.5. This program is no stranger to Power 5 competition and will not be intimidated by its ACC opponent. Miami hasn’t played since Week 1, so there could be some rust on the Canes as they take on a scorching Toledo offense.
Mississippi State Bulldogs 3-0, 3-0 ATS
It’s tough to say any SEC squad is under the radar, but no one saw Mississippi State coming. The Bulldogs raised eyebrows with a big win at Louisiana Tech in Week 2, thumping a very solid C-USA program 57-21. Then they grabbed football bettors by the eyelids in Week 3, stunning LSU 37-7 as 7.5-point underdogs at home.
Quarterback Nick Fitzgerald is fun to watch, totaling 543 yards through the air along with 240 gains on the ground, and combining for 12 total touchdowns. We’ll find out quickly if MSU is real or not, after it runs the gauntlet of back-to-back road dates in Georgia in Week 4 and Auburn in Week 5. After that, the Bulldogs only play two more games away from Starkville, at Texas A&M in Week 9 and at Arkansas in Week 12.
–
