NBA Match Recap: Denver vs. Lakers
Denver Nuggets successfully held their ground against LeBron James and the LA Lakers, winning 119-110. As reigning NBA champions, Denver entered the game as a 5-point favorite.
The public showed immense trust, with 58% backing the Nuggets on the spread and a whopping 90% on their moneyline odds. Additionally, bettors heavily favored the ‘Over’ on the 228.5 point total.
Reflecting on the past season, Denver’s impressive 56-45-1 record against the spread becomes evident. They managed to surpass the spread by an average of 0.05 points, while winning games by an average margin of 4.3 points.
Notably, their home advantage further strengthens their performance, as they boasted a significant 9.8 point differential in home games last season.
The Phoenix Suns narrowly defeated the Golden State Warriors with a final score of 108 to 104. The game, which started at 10:00, featured the Warriors, who were only favored by a single point despite facing a revamped Suns lineup.
Despite the Suns’ impressive roster, the majority of gamblers leaned toward the Warriors. Specifically, 55% of bets favored Golden State with just 51% of the betting handle on their -1 line.
When looking at the moneyline, the Warriors took a significant majority, seeing 73% of bets and 69% of the total money.
Regarding the 232.5 point total set for the game, a majority seemed to anticipate a lower-scoring affair with 73% of bets and 78% of the handle favoring the under. Reflecting on their past performances, the Warriors struggled against the spread (ATS) in the previous season, registering a 44-50-1 ATS record and underperforming by an average of 1.4 points.
Meanwhile, the Suns fared slightly better, finishing just above .500 ATS with a record of 46-45-2. Last season’s average point differential for both teams was neck and neck, with the Warriors at 1.5 points and the Suns slightly ahead at 1.6 points. This suggested that their recent matchup could be a tight one, a prediction that turned out to be accurate given the close score.
All four teams that are playing on opening night are amongst the favorites to win the NBA Finals this season with Denver leading the way of the bunch at 550 odds. They are followed by the Phoenix Suns at 650 and both the Warriors and Lakers at 1200 odds each.
"Got the win, got the ring. Good day" 💍
Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr., Christian Braun, and Aaron Gordon talk about their rings and the victory from opening night! pic.twitter.com/dfcK0aYTuZ
— NBA (@NBA) October 25, 2023
The Inspin simulation model, which simulates every NBA game thousands’ of times, up over 150 units over the last three years. A $100 bettor of our NBA would have netted a profit of $15,000+ and, a $1,000 bettor would have won $150,000+. We offer picks on NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, XFL, PGA Golf and NCAA Basketball and Football. Now is the time to sign-up, get all the picks, and start winning.
| Title: NBA Opening Night Public Betting Splits recap
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: Oct 26, 2023