sports betting

Parlays are one of the most popular — and misunderstood — betting formats in the sports gambling world. At first glance, they offer the allure of turning small stakes into massive paydays.

But as every experienced bettor knows, there’s a tradeoff: the more legs you add, the lower your chance of cashing in.

How Parlays Work

A parlay combines multiple individual bets (called legs) into one single wager. In order for the parlay to win, every leg must be correct. If just one leg loses, the entire parlay is a bust.

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Let’s say you wager $100 on a 3-leg parlay, with each game having standard odds of -110:

If all three win, the payout would be around 6-to-1 (approximately $600 profit), much higher than placing three single bets of $100 each. That’s the appeal — but the odds of hitting all three are significantly worse than many realize.

Parlays in Football: Forced Payout Math

In football betting, spreads and totals typically carry odds of -110, meaning you risk $110 to win $100. Bookmakers use a preset payout chart for parlays:

These payouts are fixed and don’t reflect the actual probability of winning. In reality, if each leg has a 50% chance, the true odds for a 3-team parlay hitting is only 12.5% — suggesting the fair value should be higher than 6-to-1. This is where the “house edge” grows.

Parlays in MLB: Where True Odds Matter

In MLB, most bets are based on moneylines (like +130 or -150), not fixed odds like -110. This changes everything. Here, the payout is calculated dynamically using true odds multiplication:

A $100 parlay on these three might return over $1,000, depending on the exact odds. Since there’s no forced payout structure, the true mathematical value of the parlay is preserved, giving sharp bettors a better shot at fair compensation — assuming each leg has value.

Should You Bet Parlays?

Short answer: Parlays are fun, but they’re not a long-term winning strategy for most bettors.

✅ When parlays might make sense:

You’re leveraging correlated outcomes (like first-half under + full game under)

❌ When parlays are dangerous:

You’re combining standard -110 NFL/college football lines just for a bigger payout

You’re chasing losses

You’re ignoring the true odds vs. the payout structure

Bookmakers love parlay bettors — because statistically, they make more profit off them. Most pros avoid parlays altogether unless the odds are truly in their favor.

Example: NFL vs. MLB Parlay

NFL Parlay (Fixed odds)

MLB Parlay (True odds)

Bottom Line: Are Parlays Worth It?

Parlays can offer a lottery ticket feel, and for recreational bettors, they’re fine in moderation. But for serious bettors looking to profit in the long run, flat betting with consistent unit sizing almost always wins out.

If you’re going to play parlays:

| Title: Parlays in Sports Betting: High Risk, High Reward — But Is It Worth It?
| Author: Michael Rinnier
| Date: May 28th, 2025

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