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The NFL continues to trend in a direction that is devaluing players at the running back position.
While a strong running game is still paramount to a team’s versatility and chances for success, star players in the backfield are becoming rarer by the year, and analytics have determined that a "running back by committee" approach is the best strategy for team building.
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Rather than pay a single high-end ball carrier a significant purse and portion of the team’s salary cap, organizations can easily replace most of their production either with a group of lesser players whose collective efforts will come close to matching a supposed star’s or by continuing to replace running backs through the draft.
There are still a few backs that are household names and stars in this league, though, and fantasy football makes them even more notorious.
According to ESPN’s Matthew Berry, six of the seven most valuable players in fantasy next season are projected to be running backs, with Los Angeles Rams Wide Receiver Cooper Kupp the sole exception at fourth-most valuable.
Berry has the Indiana Colts’ Jonathan Taylor listed as the anticipated leader in all of fantasy football for the 2022-2023 season. He’s followed by Carolina Panther Christian McCaffery, Los Angeles Charger Austin Ekeler, Kupp at four, Tennessee Titan Derrick Henry, Pittsburgh Steeler Najee Harris, and Minnesota Viking Dalvin Cook.
After Cook, Berry lists three wide receivers in a row — Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson, Cincinnati Bengals’ Ja’Marr Chase, and Las Vegas Raiders’ Davante Adams — with the New Orleans Saints’ Alvin Kamara falling just outside of the top 10.
Of course, individual running back success doesn’t always translate into team success, and Vegas knows that better than anybody. According to Fox Sports, of the five teams with the highest odds to win the 2023 Super Bowl, none of them have one of Berry’s top ten projected running back fantasy scorers.
The Buffalo Bills have the greatest odds to win the championship at 650, followed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at 800, the Kansas City Chiefs at 900, the Green Bay Packers at 1000, and finally, the Los Angeles Rams at 1100.
Unsurprisingly, Vegas expects the teams with the deepest rosters with elite quarterbacks leading the charge to have the best odds at the title.
The Los Angeles Chargers and Austin Ekeler are listed at sixth, but they also feature rising star Justin Herbert under center.
Does Rueben Owens II have the most NFL Draft potential of all the running backs in the 2023 class? https://t.co/w6j96SR2xr pic.twitter.com/Fd6LvnKugO
— Rivals (@Rivals) May 1, 2022
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| Title: Who will be the Top 5 NFL Running Backs in 2022-2023 and the odds on their teams to win the Superbowl?
| Author: Andy Quach
| Date: JuLY 1, 2022
