expert picks
The NFL will commence Week 4 with what should be an explosive Thursday Night Football matchup between the streaking 3-0 Miami Dolphins and 1-2 defending AFC Champions, the Cincinnati Bengals.
Despite being undefeated, Miami is going into this one as a pretty significant 4-point underdog and the public has been all over their odds to win.
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This could be a trap game though as the line went from 1.5 points at first opening down to the four points it is at now even with the public laying heavy action on Miami.
To be more specific, the Dolphins are taking 64% of total spread bets and 58% of the total money on the spread. On the moneyline, they are taking 77% of bets and 73% of the money on their 165 odds.
Even with the line moving in favor of Miami, the Phins have done a nice job in backing up their odds historically on the trends. When playing on Thursday Night Football, they have a 13-10 all-time record and won their last two TNF games in 2020 and 2021.
Also, an underdog spread on the road between 4-5 points has been very beneficial for Miami as they’ve gone 4-1 ATS in that scenario in their last five games. The Dolphins have also been red hot against the spread to start the season as one of just three undefeated teams ATS at 3-0.
As for the Bengals, they’ve been on the fence in their recent Thursday Night Football matchups. Since 2016, they’ve gone 3-2 and have won every other season.
With last season being a win for them, on paper, if the trend were to continue a loss could be in their cards. Since Joe Burrow joined the Bengals in 2020 as well, they’ve struggled when going into games at home as a favorite overall.
Aside from the team trends, there are matchup trends to consider as well. That includes the Dolphins holding the advantage over the Bengals on the all-time series 17-7.
The Dolphins are also 5-2 against the spread versus the Bengals in their last seven meetings overall. On the game total for points, the under has gone 5-1-1 in their last seven meetings. The under has also hit in their last five meetings against each other when playing in Cincinnati.
All in all, Miami has looked like the much better team this season with their 27.7 ppg compared to Cincinnati’s 21.3.
Thursday Night Football comin’ your way 🔜#MIAvsCIN l @MillerLite pic.twitter.com/zDN9905yC8
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) September 29, 2022
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| Title: Week 4 TNF Public Splits And Trend: Cincinnati Bengals Vs. Miami Dolphins
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: Sep 29, 2022
