expert picks
In Week 13 of the season, the two prime time games taking place are the Dallas Cowboys and Indianapolis Colts on Sunday Night Football and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football.
Both the Cowboys and Buccaneers are favored to win their respective games and each of them are taking in the majority of the action on the betting lines.
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Looking at the splits for Sunday Night Football, the Cowboys are going into the game as 10.5-point favorites. On the spread, they are looking at a massive 93% of bets on them to cover and taking in 90% of the betting handle.
The moneyline splits aren’t as heavy but are still favoring Dallas with 58% of both bets placed and money being bet. The 43.5-point total is seeing 56% of bets on the over, however, sharps are leaning towards the under at 56% of the money.
Dallas has been one of the better teams against the spread this season with a 7-4 ATS record and they’ve also covered in two of their last three games when going in favored by 10 points at home. As for the Colts, they’ve gone 5-7 ATS and are failing to cover the spread by an average of -4.1 points and have also gone 2-3 ATS in their last five games as a 9-11 point underdog.
On Monday Night Football, the Buccaneers are 4-point favorites at home over the Saints. On the spread, Tampa Bay seeing 63% of bets to cover, however, sharps have only given them 49% of the money.
The moneyline is seeing 82% of bets on the Bucs to win with 58% of the money. On the 40.5-point total, they are at 43% of bets and 49% of the handle.
Unfortunately for the Bucs, trends are not on their side in this one. Dating back to 2002, in games where Tampa Bay is favored at home by 4-5 points, they have an abysmal 2-9 against the spread. As for the Saints, in scenarios as a 4-5 point underdog on the road, they have gone 4-2 in those six games since 2008.
In their head-to-head matchups in Tampa Bay as a road underdog, New Orleans has dominated against the spread since 2002 going 7-2 ATS.
The Buccaneers are also failing to cover the spread this season by an average of -4.9 points while the Saints are only averaging a -2.6 margin on their games overall this season.
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| Title: NFL Week 13 Prime Time Public Betting Splits
| Author: Sam Profeta
| Date: Dec 1, 2022
